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Hurricane HARVEY


Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
400 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Harvey's eye has moved inland gradually during the past few hours,
and maximum winds have decreased significantly since landfall.
Radar velocity data from the Corpus Christi NOAA Doppler radar are
showing winds as high as 90 kt at an elevation of 3000-3500 ft in
the northwestern eyewall.  The advisory intensity is therefore set
at 85 kt, which could still be a little generous.  Continued
weakening is expected as Harvey's eye continues to move inland, and
maximum sustained winds are likely to fall below hurricane force
later today.  A more gradual weakening trend is anticipated after
that point, and Harvey is forecast to maintain tropical storm
strength at least through day 4, especially if part of its
circulation remains over water.  The updated NHC intensity forecast
continues a similar weakening trend noted in previous advisories and
is closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).

The initial motion has continued to decrease, and it is now
estimated to be 325/5 kt.  As the steering currents around Harvey
continue to collapse, the cyclone is expected to stall or meander
inland over southeastern Texas.  Only a few models show any sort of
definitive northeastward motion at the end of the forecast period,
and for the most part, the most reliable models keep Harvey over
southeastern Texas through day 5.  The NHC track forecast depicts
Harvey taking a slow counterclockwise loop just inland from the
coast.  This track is expected to exacerbate the potential for
catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall at least through the
middle of next week.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is moving farther inland over southeastern Texas and
continues to bring life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to portions of the Texas coast.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could still reach heights of 6
to 12 feet above ground level at the coast between Port Aransas and
Port O'Connor.  For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at Due to the slow
motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of onshore flow, water
levels will remain elevated for several days.

3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Wednesday.
Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard.


INIT  26/0900Z 28.5N  97.2W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 12H  26/1800Z 28.8N  97.4W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 24H  27/0600Z 29.0N  97.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  27/1800Z 28.7N  97.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  28/0600Z 28.5N  97.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 72H  29/0600Z 28.3N  96.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  30/0600Z 29.0N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  31/0600Z 30.0N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

Forecaster Berg