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HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082017
1500 UTC WED AUG 16 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N  65.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 110SE  70SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 180SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N  65.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N  67.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 39.0N  61.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  35SE  15SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE  90SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 41.8N  53.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  70SE  40SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 45.5N  45.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  70SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 49.5N  38.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 55.0N  32.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 55.0N  26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N  65.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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