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HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082017
2100 UTC TUE AUG 15 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N  71.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  20 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 190SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N  71.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N  71.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 35.3N  69.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  70SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 37.4N  64.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  35SE  15SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 39.7N  58.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  70SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 130SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 42.9N  50.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  70SE  50SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 160SE 140SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 51.5N  37.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 110SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 55.5N  33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N  71.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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