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HURRICANE GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082017
1500 UTC TUE AUG 15 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N  72.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  60SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..170NE 170SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N  72.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N  72.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 34.4N  70.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 36.7N  67.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  80SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 38.9N  61.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 100SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 41.3N  53.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 110SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 48.8N  38.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  90SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 180SE 180SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 54.0N  34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N  72.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 
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