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Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017
1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017

The center of Franklin moved off the western coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula soon after 2100 UTC, and Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft arrived not too long after that to begin
sampling the cyclone's circulation.  The planes have observed
increasing deep convection, and the NOAA aircraft measured a peak
700-mb flight-level wind of 52 kt within the convection east of the
center.  The SFMR instruments have measured surface winds higher
than 50 kt, but these values were either rain flagged or likely
influenced by shoaling effects in the shallow shelf waters off the
Yucatan coast.  Accounting for these considerations, Franklin's
initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.  The Air Force plane also
reported that the central pressure has fallen to 996 mb.

Franklin is moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, and mid-level
ridging located over the northern Gulf of Mexico should force the
cyclone to turn westward by Wednesday morning.  The track guidance
suggests that a south-of-due-west motion is possible after 24 hours
as Franklin's circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of
Mexico, and the cyclone's center is expected to cross the coast
Wednesday night or early Thursday.  The new NHC track forecast is a
little south of the previous forecast, accounting for the southward
bend noted in the track models.

The waters of the Bay of Campeche are around 30 deg C and by
themselves should support further intensification.  One inhibiting
factor for strengthening could be a gradual increase in northerly
shear over the system up until landfall, yet many of the intensity
models show Franklin intensifying in spite of the shear.  In fact,
the regional hurricane models depict Franklin reaching an intensity
of 70-75 kt in 24 hours.  Given that the storm is already producing
45-kt winds after just moving offshore, the NHC forecast lies closer
to the more aggressive models and shows Franklin reaching hurricane
intensity in about 24 hours.  Regardless, there is an increasing
likelihood that Franklin will be able to reach hurricane strength
before landfall, and accordingly, the government of Mexico has
issued a Hurricane Warning for portions of the state of Veracruz.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 20.3N  91.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 20.4N  93.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 20.4N  95.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 20.0N  97.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/0000Z 19.5N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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