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Tropical Depression EMILY


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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017

After an earlier convective hiatus, recent satellite, radar, and
lightning data indicate that thunderstorm activity has redeveloped
within 20 nmi of the low-level center. Although the small
circulation is somewhat elongated northeast-to-southwest, I am
hesitant to discontinue advisories on Emily at this time in case the
new convection persists. Buoy 41010 southeast of the center has been
reporting sustained winds of 25-29 kt at a 4-meter elevation early
this morning, but the initial intensity will remain at 25 kt since
convection has only recently redeveloped.

Emily has made the anticipated turn toward the northeast and is now
moving 050/12 kt. The depression is embedded in southwesterly flow
ahead of an eastward-moving, deep-layer trough and frontal system.
Emily is forecast to accelerate northeastward over the western
Atlantic through the remainder of the forecast period, remain well
offshore of the southeast and east coasts of the United States. The
new official forecast track lies close to the previous advisory
track, and is between the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.

Emily is expected to remain ahead of a cold front for the next 24
hours or so, which could allow for some slight strengthening while
the southwesterly vertical wind shear remains in the 10-15-kt range.
Thereafter, the shear is forecast to steadily increase, exceeding
30 kt by 60 h, resulting in Emily becoming an extratropical or
post-tropical remnant low by 36-48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast
is identical to the previous advisory, and is similar to the the
consensus model IVCN and guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 29.3N  78.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 30.4N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 32.1N  75.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 33.9N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  03/1200Z 35.3N  68.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  04/1200Z 37.6N  62.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  05/1200Z 39.0N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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