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Tropical Depression Emily Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

Emily's appearance in satellite and radar imagery has degraded
significantly since the previous advisory, with only weak convection
noted near the low-level center. The deepest convection is well
removed from the center and lies across southern Florida and the
Keys. Since Doppler velocity values at any altitude have decreased
to less than 40 kt, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt,
resulting in Emily being downgraded to a depression on this
advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 070/10 kt. Emily made landfall on
Anna Maria Island, Florida, around 1445Z. Since that time, the
depression has been moving steadily eastward to east-northeastward,
and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. NHC
model guidance remains in very good agreement on Emily emerging off
the east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning, and then
accelerating northeastward ahead of a digging mid-level trough and
frontal system through the remainder of the forecast period. There
is high confidence that Emily will not directly affect the
southeastern United States after the small cyclone emerges over the
Atlantic Ocean. The new NHC forecast track was nudged slightly to
the east of the previous advisory track, and follows a blend of the
TVCN and HCCA consensus models.

Some additional weakening is possible tonight while Emily moves
across the central Florida peninsula and entrains more dry air from
the north and west of the system. However, once the compact cyclone
emerges over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic
Ocean on Tuesday, some gradual re-strengthening is expected to begin
while the vertical wind shear is modest at around 15 kt. By 48 h,
the shear is forecast to increase to 20-30 kt, which should act to
cap Emily's intensity until the cyclone dissipates or merges with a
frontal system in 96-120 h. Since Emily is not expected to regain
tropical storm status when it exits the Florida east coast Tuesday
morning, no watches or warnings are required for that area.

The primary threat with Emily will continue to be locally heavy
rainfall across portions of the southeastern Florida peninsula
through tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/2100Z 27.8N  81.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  01/0600Z 28.4N  80.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  01/1800Z 29.9N  78.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 31.4N  76.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 33.0N  74.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 35.6N  68.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 38.1N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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