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Tropical Storm DON


Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052017
500 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the area
of low pressure located east-southeast of the Windward Islands has
found a small, but well-defined surface circulation and a small
area of tropical-storm-force winds over the eastern semicircle of
the circulation.  The associated convection is not particularly
well organized, but there is a curved band located to the north
of the center and a couple of bursts have formed closer to the
small circulation center this afternoon. Based on these data,
advisories are being initiated on a tropical storm, the fourth of
the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Don is currently within a
low shear environment and over warm water, so some strengthening is
possible tonight and Tuesday. Once the system enters the eastern
Caribbean Sea, strong upper-level westerly winds and strong
low-level easterly flow are likely to cause the small circulation to
open up into a trough.  As a result, dissipation is forecast within
72 hours.

Don is moving westward or 275/15 kt. The tropical storm is forecast
to move quickly westward within the strong trade-wide flow for the
next few days.  The NHC track is along the southern edge of the
guidance envelope, closest to the HFIP corrected consensus


INIT  17/2100Z 11.2N  52.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 11.5N  55.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 11.8N  58.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 12.0N  62.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 12.2N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Brown