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Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042017
1100 PM AST Thu Jul 06 2017

The depression continues to be poorly organized this evening.
Recent scatterometer data indicate that the circulation is losing
definition, with the center in that data well to the southeast of
the remaining convection.   A complication, though, is recent
observations from NOAA buoy 41041 that suggest the possibility of a
second center closer to the remaining convection and well to the
north of the center seen in the scatterometer data.  The initial
intensity remains 25 kt based mainly on the scatterometer data.  It
is possible that the system has already degenerated to an open wave,
but for now advisories will be maintained until visible imagery
becomes available Friday morning.

The depression should continue to lose organization due to
entrainment of dry air and developing southwesterly shear.  The new
intensity forecast now calls for the system to degenerate to a
remnant low between 12 and 24 h and become a open wave after 72 h.
Both of these events could occur earlier than current forecast.
It should be noted that the UKMET model suggests the possibility
the system could regenerate near the end of the forecast period.
However, the other large-scale models do not yet support this
scenario.

A strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should
steer it westward to west-northwestward until dissipation.  The new
forecast track lies near the model consensus and is a little to the
south of the previous track.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 13.4N  46.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 14.1N  49.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 15.2N  53.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/1200Z 16.6N  56.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/0000Z 18.3N  60.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0000Z 21.0N  66.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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