ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212016 800 AM MST MON NOV 14 2016 Satellite images indicate that Tina is weakening. Deep convection has decreased during the past several hours and is now confined to a narrow curved band about 90 n mi northeast of the center. The Dvorak classifications have lowered, and support reducing the initial intensity to 30 kt. Very strong southwesterly shear of nearly 40 kt and dry air will continue to affect the cyclone during the next couple of days, which should cause additional weakening. The system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low in 12 to 24 hours and will likely dissipate in a couple of days or less. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. A turn to the west in the low-level easterly flow is expected later today as the cyclone loses convection and becomes vertically shallow. The NHC track forecast is a tad north of the previous one, based mainly on the initial position, and lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 19.0N 108.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 19.1N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 19.1N 110.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 19.1N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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