ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212016
300 AM MDT MON NOV 14 2016

Strong south-southwesterly shear is taking a toll on Tina.  The
convective burst that occurred during the evening hours became
displaced from the center and dissipated, but a new smaller burst of
convection has recently developed about 75 n mi northeast of the
center.  Although Dvorak data T-numbers have decreased, a TAFB
Dvorak current intensity number of T2.5 supports maintaining Tina
has a 35-kt tropical storm, but this could be generous.  Tina is
expected to be a short-lived tropical cyclone.  The strong shear
that is currently over the system is forecast to increase to nearly
40 kt today, and dry mid-level air to Tina's west should cause the
tropical cyclone to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low within
the next 24 hours.  The new NHC intensity forecast is identical to
the previous advisory and is in good agreement with the statistical
guidance and dynamical models which show dissipation in 36 to 48
hours.

The tropical storm appears to have turned west-northwestward
overnight with an initial motion estimate of 300/5.  As Tina weakens
and becomes a more vertically shallow system, it is expected to be
move generally westward within the low-level flow around a
subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific. The global models are in
relatively good agreement on this steering pattern and the NHC track
forecast is a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and GFS ensemble mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 18.7N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 18.8N 108.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 18.9N 109.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1800Z 18.9N 110.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN