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HURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016
200 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016

Cool waters and strong southwesterly shear are causing Seymour to
rapidly weaken this morning.  The cloud pattern of the tropical
cyclone is becoming increasingly asymmetric, with the center
located near the southwestern edge of the main convective mass.  As
a result of the degradation of the cloud pattern, subjective and
objective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers are quickly decreasing, and the
initial intensity has been reduced to 80 kt for this advisory.

Seymour will be moving over SSTs below 25 degrees Celsius and
into an area of vertical shear greater than 30 kt within 12 hours.
These hostile conditions will cause a rapid decrease in wind speed
during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Seymour is predicted to weaken
to a tropical storm this afternoon, and become a post-tropical
remnant low by Friday afternoon.

The hurricane has turned north-northwestward, and is moving 335
degrees at 10 kt.  Seymour is forecast to turn northward today, and
then northeastward on Friday ahead of a large deep-layer trough
located well offshore of the west coast of the United States.  The
track guidance remains tightly clustered but has trended slightly
faster this cycle.  The updated NHC track forecast has been
adjusted accordingly and lies near the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 19.5N 122.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 21.0N 122.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 22.6N 122.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 24.0N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0600Z 25.3N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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