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TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016
400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016

The cyclone has become better organized during the last several
hours.  Visible satellite images suggest that an inner core is
forming, with a few curved bands surrounding this central
convection. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are
2.5/35 kt, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin are slightly higher.  In addition, an ASCAT pass around
1600 UTC showed maximum winds in the 30 to 35 kt range.  Based on
these data, the initial wind speed is increased to 35 kt.

The global models are in agreement that Seymour should remain in
a favorable upper-level wind pattern during the next few days.
These light upper-level winds, combined with very warm water and
high mid-level moisture values should allow Seymour to steadily, or
perhaps rapidly, strengthen during the next 72 hours. Beyond that
time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear, cooler waters,
and a decrease in moisture should end the strengthening trend and
induce weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the
previous one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt.  A
mid-level ridge over Mexico should continue to steer Seymour
west-northwestward at a slightly slower pace during the next few
days.  After that time, the ridge is likely to erode as a deep-
layer low pressure moves eastward toward California.  This pattern
change will likely cause Seymour to turn northwestward and then
northward in 4 to 5 days.   The models have shifted considerably to
the right at the longer range points, and the new NHC track forecast
has been adjusted in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 13.9N 105.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 14.5N 107.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 15.2N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 17.8N 119.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 20.8N 121.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 23.1N 120.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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