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TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192016
800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016
Ulika's cloud pattern continues to have a sheared appearance this
morning, with only a small area of bursting deep convection to the
east of the estimated low-level center location. The initial
intensity is set at 40 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from
SAB and TAFB. A very hostile dynamic environment lies ahead of
Ulika, with westerly shear forecast to increase to 40-50 kt in 36
hours. Given such unfavorable conditions, the system should
degenerate into a remnant low by the weekend, or sooner.
The cyclone has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion
is estimated to be around 320/6 kt. The flow on the southern side
of a weak low- to mid-level ridge should cause Ulika to turn toward
the west-northwest and then west over the next couple of days. The
official track forecast is between the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks
and only a little bit north of the previous NHC forecast.
The next advisory on Ulika will be issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 16.7N 139.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 17.3N 140.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 17.8N 141.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 18.0N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 01/1200Z 18.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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