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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2016

...PAINE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 116.8W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Quintin

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paine was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 116.8 West.  Paine is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn toward the
north-northeast with a reduction in forward speed is expected
tonight.  On the forecast track, the center of Paine is expected to
approach the northwest coast of the Baja California peninsula
tonight or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Continued rapid weakening is forecast during
the next day or so, and Paine is expected to become a remnant low on
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Paine is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches across the northern Baja California peninsula with isolated
storm total amounts of 6 inches through Wednesday.

Moisture in advance of Paine will help spread rains into portions
of southern California, Arizona, southern Utah, New Mexico, and
southwestern Colorado with localized maximum amounts of 1 to 2
inches possible, mainly over the favored higher terrain.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within a portion of
the warning area by tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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