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TROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016

Paine continues to quickly strengthen this evening.  The convective
banding has improved, with a mid-level eye feature now apparent in
recent microwave images.  The latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers
from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, and objective estimates from
UW/CIMSS have climbed to T3.8 or about 60 kt, which is the basis
for the 60-kt advisory intensity.  Paine is expected to remain in a
low shear environment through tomorrow morning, while it remains
over SSTs greater than 26C.  This should allow for some additional
strengthening and Paine is forecast to become a hurricane overnight
or early Monday.  After that time, the tropical cyclone is forecast
to move over progressively cooler waters and into an area of
increasing southwesterly shear, which should cause rapid weakening.
Paine is forecast to become a remnant low within 72 hours, and
dissipate shortly thereafter.  The NHC intensity forecast is below
the SHIPS/LGEM statistical guidance, and is closest to the HWRF
model.

The initial motion estimate is 315/13 kt.  The cyclone is forecast
to move north-northwestward, then northward around the southwestern
and western portions of a mid- to upper-level ridge centered over
northern Mexico.  As Paine weakens and become a more shallow
system, it should slow down and then dissipate just west of the Baja
California peninsula in 3 to 4 days.  Some of the dynamical models
take a stronger system northeastward into Mexico, but given the
hostile atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions west of the Baja
peninsula, this solution seems unlikely at this time.

Deep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is
expected to spread over portions of the southwestern United States
in a couple of days.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in
these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 19.5N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 20.9N 115.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 23.0N 116.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 25.0N 117.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 26.6N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 28.9N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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