ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
800 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2016

In spite of the dry air nearby, Orlene has re-intensified into a
hurricane.  The system maintained a small CDO with an embedded
eye feature over the past several hours, although recently the eye
has become less distinct.  Based on the Dvorak data T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB the intensity is set, somewhat conservatively, to 70 kt
for this advisory.  Orlene should remain in a low-shear environment,
but the continued presence of dry air, with mid-level relative
humidities less than 30 percent, should cause weakening.  The
official intensity forecast is very similar to the latest SHIPS
guidance.  Based on the recent resurgence of the tropical cyclone,
the new NHC forecast delays the system's weakening to a remnant low
compared to the previous advisories.

There is fairly high confidence in the center fixes, and the initial
motion is just south of due west or 260/8 kt.  Over the next few
days, a zonally oriented mid-level ridge should keep Orlene on a
general westward heading.  Later in the forecast period, a weakness
in the ridge caused by a trough near 140W should induce a gradual
turn toward the west-northwest.  The official track forecast is only
a little bit faster than the previous one, and is very close to the
multi-model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 20.1N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 19.7N 123.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 19.5N 125.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 19.5N 128.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 19.5N 130.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 19.6N 135.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 20.2N 140.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 21.0N 143.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN