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Tropical Storm ORLENE (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
200 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2016

Orlene has a quite small, symmetric central dense overcast tonight,
with a tiny eye occasionally making an appearance. Overall, the
convective structure has not changed much over the last few hours.
A blend of the TAFB/SAB subjective Dvorak and CIMSS Advanced Dvorak
suggests that Orlene remains a 60-kt tropical storm.

Orlene is situated directly under an upper-level subtropical ridge
and thus is experiencing very low vertical shear.  However, the
tropical storm is expected to ride along the 26C SST isotherm while
the not-very-moist environment becomes quite dry during the next
three days.  In addition, by days four and five, the shear should go
up substantially as Orlene approaches a mid- to upper-level low. The
bottom line is that the tropical storm should gradually weaken. The
NHC intensity forecast is based upon a now more tightly clustered
set of statistical and dynamical model guidance. Perhaps the biggest
uncertainty is when Orlene's deep convection will cease.  The
forecast is for that to occur around day five, but it would not be
surprising if this occurred significantly earlier.

Orlene is moving toward the west at about 6 kt.  The system is
expected to move toward the west or west-southwest with a faster
forward speed during the next three to four days as mid-level
ridging builds to its north.  Around day four or five, Orlene should
begin responding to the upper-level low that it approaches by
turning toward the west-northwest.  The NHC track forecast is nearly
unchanged and is based upon the tightly clustered members of the
multi-model TVCN consensus technique.

A pair of ASCAT scatterometer passes indicate that Orlene has
contracted some in size for its 34 and 50 kt wind radii. The NHC
wind radii forecast is based upon the multi-model RVCN consensus
technique and is slightly smaller than that from the previous
advisory because of the smaller initial size.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 20.1N 121.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 19.9N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 19.6N 124.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 19.5N 126.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 19.5N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 19.5N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 20.0N 139.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 21.0N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:10:43 UTC