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HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
800 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2016

A combination of conventional and microwave satellite data indicates
there has been little change in the structure of Orlene since the
last advisory, with the low-level center still displaced to the
south of the upper-level center.  Satellite intensity estimates
from SAB and TAFB are unchanged since the last advisory, so the
initial intensity remains 70 kt.  However, objective estimates
suggest this could be a bit generous.

There is no change in the philosophy of the intensity forecast.
Vertical shear is decreasing over Orlene and it is forecast to
remain low during the next several days.  However, the tropical
cyclone is forecast to be over marginally warm SSTs and move into a
drier and more stable air mass.  These environmental conditions are
expected to result in a gradual weakening during the forecast
period.  The new NHC intensity forecast is changed little since
the previous advisory and remains in good agreement with the IVCN
intensity model consensus.

The initial motion is now a westward drift of 270/2.  A faster
motion toward the west and west-southwest is forecast during the
next 3-4 days as the subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of
the cyclone.  Late in the forecast period, a large mid- to
upper-level low expected to be well northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands should produce a break in the subtropical ridge, allowing
the cyclone to turn west-northwestward.  The new forecast track is
similar to, but a little south of, the previous track in agreement
with the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 20.1N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 20.0N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 19.8N 121.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 19.7N 123.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 19.6N 126.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 19.5N 131.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 21.5N 140.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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