ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162016 200 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2016 Orlene continues to rapidly strengthen, with a remarkable 50 kt increase in intensity during the past 24 hours. Orlene's eye has warmed considerably during the past several hours and has become more distinct and symmetric in visible imagery. Additionally, surrounding inner core cloud tops have cooled to around -70C. A symmetric upper-level outflow pattern has developed, consistent with the low vertical shear environment. There still appears to be a window of opportunity for some further strengthening during the next 12 hours or so, as indicated by most of the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance. Afterward, a weakening trend is expected to commence as the Orlene moves into a more stable and drier thermodynamic environment. The official intensity forecast is based on the IVCN model consensus and is close to the LGEM guidance beyond the 48 hour period. Orlene is moving more toward the north now, a little sooner than model guidance previously indicated, and the initial motion is estimated to be 350/5 kt. This general motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours within a weakness in a mid-level ridge created by an amplifying trough over the western portion of the United States. By mid-period, high pressure is forecast to back westward, to the north of the hurricane as the aforementioned trough tracks northeastward. As a result in this change in the mid- to upper-level steering flow, Orlene should turn toward the west with an acceleration in forward motion. The new NHC forecast track is adjusted a little to the right of the previous one and lies near the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 17.9N 119.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 18.5N 119.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 19.1N 119.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 19.5N 119.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.5N 120.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 19.1N 123.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 18.8N 128.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 18.7N 132.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:10:42 UTC