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Tropical Storm ORLENE (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016

Visible, infrared, and microwave satellite images indicate that
Orlene continues to become more organized.  The cyclone has
well-defined curved bands, and a recent SSMIS image showed that it
has a mid-level eye feature.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are
now T3.0/45 kt while the objective UW-CIMSS ADT is up to T3.5/55 kt.
However, ASCAT data only showed maximum winds of 35-40 kt.  Given
this wide range, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this
advisory.

Satellite data indicate that Orlene's center is a little bit
northeast of the previous estimates, and the initial motion is now
310/12 kt.  There are no changes to the forecast track reasoning.
Orlene should turn northwestward and then northward and slow down
drastically during the next 48 hours when it becomes positioned to
the west of the subtropical ridge axis, and south of an amplifying
trough over California.  After 48 hours, the ridge will gradually
restrengthen to the north of Orlene, forcing it toward the west with
an increase in forward speed through the end of the forecast period.
 The official track forecast has been shifted a little northeast of
the previous forecast to account for the repositioning of Orlene's
center, but otherwise it still closely follows the TVCX multi-model
consensus.

Given Orlene's improved structure, as well as favorable sea surface
temperatures and low shear, rapid intensification still looks like a
possibility.  The SHIPS guidance continues to indicate a 1-in-3
chance of a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours, and the raw
guidance itself brings Orlene to a hurricane in about 24 hours. The
NHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak intensity close to
the SHIPS and Florida State Superensemble in about 36 hours, which
is at the top end of the guidance envelope.  After 36 hours,
Orlene's slow motion over sea surface temperatures between 26-27C is
likely to lead to upwelling of colder water, and the cyclone is
expected to gradually weaken through the end of the forecast period.
This new forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous
advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 16.3N 117.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 17.0N 118.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 17.9N 119.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 18.6N 119.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 19.1N 119.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 19.5N 120.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 19.0N 124.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 19.0N 129.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:10:42 UTC