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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
900 PM MDT SAT SEP 10 2016

The area of low pressure southwest of Mexico has become better
organized during the last several hours.  Earlier ASCAT data
indicated that the low had a well-defined center, and the latest
infrared images show enough organized deep convection in a band in
the northwestern quadrant declare this system a tropical depression.
The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with the TAFB
satellite estimate.  This is the earliest 16th tropical cyclone
formation in the eastern Pacific since 1992.

The depression is forecast to be in an environment of light shear,
warm waters and a humid mid-level atmosphere for at least a few
days.  There are no obvious reasons why this cyclone would not
intensify, other than a somewhat broad initial wind structure, and
guidance is in fairly good agreement on at least gradual
strengthening for the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is
near or slightly above the intensity guidance after 24 hours, and
this forecast could turn out to be conservative, especially in a few
days, if the system develops an inner core.  The long range
intensity is leveled off due to the uncertainty of what latitude the
cyclone will be located at after day 3, which is pretty critical in
that portion of the eastern Pacific due to the tight SST gradient.

An uncertain estimate of initial motion is 310/10.  The depression
is likely to move generally northwestward for the next couple of
days around a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico.  A weakness in
the ridge near 120-125 degrees west should cause the cyclone to turn
north-northwestward and decelerate as it enters weaker steering
currents near the ridge axis.  The weakness is forecast to fill in
by all the models on days 4 and 5, and this restrengthened ridge
would steer the cyclone generally westward at a faster forward speed
near the end of the forecast period.  Overall, the models agree on
the synoptic scenario, albeit with some timing disagreements.  The
NHC forecast track is close to the model consensus, which has been
an excellent guidance tool to smooth through the along and cross
track model differences so far in the 2016 eastern Pacific season.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0300Z 13.9N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 14.9N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 16.0N 118.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 16.9N 119.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 17.7N 120.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 18.9N 120.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z 19.1N 122.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 19.0N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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