ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
300 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the center
has made landfall in mainland Mexico a short distance southeast
of Bahia Kino.  The overall cloud pattern has deteriorated somewhat,
with an erosion of deep convection over the northwestern quadrant of
the circulation, and subjective and objective Dvorak intensity
estimates are below hurricane strength.  Therefore the system has
been downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm.  With the center moving
inland, rapid weakening will occur, however there is a possibility
that Newton could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of
extreme southeastern Arizona later today.  The circulation is
expected to dissipate on Thursday.

The initial motion is northward, or 010/15 kt.  The latest NHC track
forecast is very similar to the previous one.  Newton should
gradually curve to the northeast as it moves between the western
periphery of a mid-level high and a broad trough to the north.  The
official forecast follows the multi-model consensus.

The main concern with this system will be heavy rainfall that will
be spreading from northwestern Mexico into Arizona and New Mexico
over the next day or so.  These rains could cause flooding and mud
slides.  Consult statements from you local weather offices for
possible warnings.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 28.7N 111.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 31.4N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  08/0600Z 33.5N 108.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN