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HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
900 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016

Newton's satellite appearance has begun to deteriorate.  The
cyclone's cloud pattern is characterized by a ragged eye, which has
been filling, and breaks in the western eyewall.  Deep convection
within the central dense overcast (CDO) is asymmetrically
distributed, and cloud top temperatures within the CDO have begun
to warm significantly. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased to T4.5/77
kt and T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and the initial
intensity estimate is lowered to 70 kt, a blend of these values.
The center of Newton is expected to traverse the rugged terrain of
Baja California Sur today, and its interaction with land should
result in steady weakening.  After the center emerges in the Gulf of
California late this afternoon or evening, it is not expected to
spend much time over water before making a second landfall in
northwestern Mexico early Wednesday.  With an increase in
southwesterly shear forecast around that time, either a steady
intensity or slow weakening is likely prior to the second landfall.
Once Newton moves inland over northwestern Mexico, the low- to
mid-level centers are likely to separate when the circulation passes
over the Sierra Madre Occidental, and rapid weakening is forecast.
The NHC intensity forecast is reduced some compared to the previous
one, and is near or just above the multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 325/17.  Newton is being steered
around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the United
States lower Mississippi Valley but should turn northward tonight as
it become embedded in the flow between the ridge and a trough
of low pressure lifting out over the western United States.  The
northward motion should continue through dissipation well inland
over northwestern Mexico or southeastern Arizona.  The NHC track
forecast is virtually the same as the previous one but just a little
faster, and is near the multi-model consensus.

Newton continues to be a large tropical cyclone, and hazards extend
well away from the center.  These hazards will affect a large
portion of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico during the
next day or so.  Moisture associated the remnants of Newton are
likely to cause heavy rains and localized flash flooding over parts
of Arizona and New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 24.1N 111.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 26.5N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 24H  07/1200Z 29.7N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  08/0000Z 32.8N 110.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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