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HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016

Newton's intensity appears to have leveled off based on little
change in the ragged 45-nmi diameter mid- to upper-level eye noted
in conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Now that the eye
is interacting with the mountainous terrain of Baja California
Sur, gradual weakening should begin. However, since Newton's wind
field is much larger than that of a typical hurricane, slower
weakening is expected and Newton is forecast to still be a
hurricane when it makes a second landfall along the northwestern
coast of mainland Mexico in 24-30 hours. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF
models show Newton losing no strength at all before the next
landfall occurs. After moving inland over northwestern Mexico,
Newton is forecast to rapidly weaken due to interaction with the
high terrain of the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is above
the intensity consensus model IVCN, close to a blend of the SHIPS
and LGEM models.

Newton is now moving north-northwestward or 335/15 kt based on
microwave satellite fixes. The center of the large eye of Newton is
currently moving over or very near Cabo San Lucas, with most of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula now inside the eye.
The hurricane is forecast to move steadily around the western
periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge currently located over the
south-central United States and northwestern Mexico. This stable
steering pattern will result in Newton turning northward later
today, and then turning toward the north-northeast or northeast
tonight and on Wednesday, bringing the center of the hurricane near
the northwestern coast of Mexico Wednesday morning. The NHC track
guidance remains tightly packed, and the new official track forecast
is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and
lies near the GFS-ECMWF model solutions.

Since Newton is forecast to remain a hurricane until the second
landfall occurs, the Government of Mexico has issued a hurricane
warning for a portion of mainland Mexico. Although Newton is
expected to degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern
United States by 48 hours, deep moisture ahead of the cyclone will
result in heavy rains that can produce flash flooding and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 22.8N 109.9W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS
 12H  06/1800Z 24.7N 110.9W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 24H  07/0600Z 27.7N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  07/1800Z 30.9N 111.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  08/0600Z 33.4N 109.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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