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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
400 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016

The area of low pressure located near the southwestern coast of
Mexico has become better organized today.  Satellite data indicate
that the center of circulation is now well defined, and thunderstorm
activity is sufficiently organized to classify the system as a
tropical depression.  A recent ASCAT pass indicated that maximum
winds were near 30 kt, and that is used as the initial wind speed.

The initial motion of the depression is highly uncertain since it
has just formed, but the best guess is 345/2 kt.  A faster
northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue for
the next couple of days while the system moves in the flow on the
southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge.  This pattern should take
the cyclone very near or over the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula in about 2 days.  A more northward motion is
forecast after that time when the cyclone moves around the ridge.
The model guidance is in fair agreement on this scenario, and the
NHC track forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The depression is in an environment of moist air, moderate shear and
over warm waters.  Since the cyclone is expected to remain in those
conditions until it nears the Baja coast, steady strengthening is
anticipated.  Once it crosses Baja, land interaction and an
increase in shear should cause weakening.  The NHC intensity
forecast is fairly close to the intensity model consensus.

It is worth noting that there are large differences in the future
wind radii predicted by the global and statistical models.  The
NHC size forecast closely follows the wind radii consensus model.

Based on the current forecast, the government of Mexico has
issued a Hurricane Watch for the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula.  A tropical storm or hurricane warning could
be required by tonight. Heavy rains, which could result in flash
flooding and mud slides, are expected to continue over portions of
southwestern Mexico for another day or so.  These rains will likely
spread over the Baja California peninsula within the next couple of
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 16.0N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 17.1N 106.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 18.6N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 20.7N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 22.8N 110.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 28.0N 112.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  08/1800Z 32.3N 111.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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