ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016 Lester continues to slowly weaken. The eye of the hurricane has become less defined in satellite images and although convection remains quite deep, it is more asymmetric than it was overnight. Recent microwave data also reveal that the eyewall has eroded some on the north side. A blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Final T- and CI-numbers, including the UW-CIMSS ADT values, is used to lower the initial intensity to 105 kt. Sea surface temperatures ahead of Lester only lower slightly along the expected track and the wind shear is expected to be generally light. The SHIPS model does show the environmental moisture decreasing near Lester during the next several days. These conditions should cause a gradual weakening of Lester, and the NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous one and stays near the intensity model consensus. The major hurricane remains on a due westward course at 12 kt. A strong mid-level ridge over the east-central subtropical Pacific should continue to steer Lester westward for the next couple of days. After that time, a slight turn to the west-northwest is predicted, due to possible binary interaction with Madeline, when Lester approaches the Hawaiian Islands in 3-5 days. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and lies close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 18.1N 134.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 18.1N 136.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 18.1N 138.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 18.2N 140.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 18.5N 142.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 19.8N 147.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 21.4N 152.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 23.4N 157.6W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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