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TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
900 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

The cloud pattern of Lester continues to gradually become better
organized, with developing convective banding features surrounding
a small CDO and expanding upper-level outflow.  Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, and that value is used
for the advisory intensity.  The global models forecast a low-shear
environment for Lester over the next several days, and the cyclone
should remain over SSTs warmer than 27 deg C throughout most of the
forecast period.  Steady strengthening is forecast until late in
period when Lester approaches marginal SSTs.  The official forecast
is close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN.

Geostationary and microwave satellite fixes yield a motion estimate
of about 295/10 kt.  The track forecast reasoning remains about the
same as in the previous advisory.  Throughout the forecast period,
the tropical cyclone should remain embedded in the flow on the south
side of a broad mid-tropospheric ridge over the eastern North
Pacific.  A gradual turn toward the west, at a slightly faster pace
than shown in the previous official forecast, is anticipated.  The
NHC track prediction is very close to the latest multi-model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 16.6N 112.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 17.0N 113.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 17.5N 115.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 17.7N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 17.8N 118.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 17.9N 122.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 18.0N 127.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 18.0N 132.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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