ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132016 900 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016 The cloud pattern of the depression has become a little better organized during the past several hours with the center of circulation located between two curved bands to its north and south. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, in agreement with a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The tropical cyclone is expected to strengthen during the next 3 to 4 days while it remains over warm water, in a moist environment, and in moderate wind shear conditions. Some weakening could occur by the end of the forecast period when the system moves over cooler waters and into a drier air mass. The intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is close to the intensity model consensus. The depression has been moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt away from the coast of Mexico. A decrease in forward speed is expected on Thursday when the cyclone moves closer to a break in the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to rebuild to the north of the cyclone this weekend, and that should cause the system to move westward at a faster pace. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the south of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 15.7N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 16.8N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.2N 115.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 17.6N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 17.8N 119.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 17.9N 124.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 18.1N 129.4W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2016 12:10:36 UTC