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TROPICAL STORM KAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
2100 UTC FRI AUG 19 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 111.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE  50SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 111.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 111.5W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.3N 112.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 112.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 113.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.0N 114.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.8N 116.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 22.4N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.9N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 111.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


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