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TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
200 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2016

The convective structure of Kay has continued to degenerate during
the day, with the deep convection now confined to the northwestern
quadrant.  The initial intensity is decreased to 35 kt based mainly
on a blend of subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB combined with the observed decay of the cloud pattern.

The initial motion is now 275/7.  A low- to mid-level ridge to
the north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward until dissipation.  The new track guidance
envelope has shifted a little northward, and the new forecast track
lies a little to the south of the consensus models.

Kay should continue to gradually weaken as it moves over decreasing
sea surface temperatures.  The intensity forecast continues to call
for the cyclone to become a depression in 24 hours or less, and for
it to subsequently decay to a remnant low by 36 hours.  The forecast
also follows the global models in showing the system weakening to a
trough by 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 22.0N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 22.1N 119.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 22.5N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 22.8N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1800Z 22.9N 123.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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