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TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
800 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2016

Microwave data and first-light visible imagery indicate that the
convection associated with Kay has become less organized, with the
low-level center now lying near the southeast edge of the
convective area. The initial intensity is decreased to 40 kt based
mainly on a blend of subjective satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB combined with the observed decay of the cloud pattern.

The microwave data show that Kay turned westward during the night
with the initial motion now 280/6.  A low- to mid-level ridge to
the north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward until dissipation.  The new forecast track,
which lies near the model consensus, is shifted somewhat to the
south of the previous track due to the current position and motion.

Kay will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, which
should cause a continued gradual weakening.  The new intensity
forecast calls for the cyclone to become a depression in 24 hours
or less, and for it to subsequently decay to a remnant low by 36
hours.  The forecast also follows the global models in showing the
system weakening to a trough after 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 22.0N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/0000Z 22.2N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1200Z 22.5N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  24/0000Z 22.9N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z 23.2N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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