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TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016
300 AM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016

Microwave data show that the low-level center continues to be
located on the northern edge of a large area of deep convection
indicating that shear is still affecting the cyclone. Dvorak
T-numbers have not changed in this cycle and support an initial
intensity of 45 kt. Although the shear is forecast to decrease, the
cyclone will begin to encounter cooler waters and a more stable
environment in about 24 to 36 hours. On this basis, the NHC
forecast calls for no change in intensity during the next day or so
and a gradual weakening thereafter. Kay is expected to become a
remnant low by 96 hours or perhaps sooner.

Kay continues to be embedded within light steering currents, and is
moving slowly toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 5 kt around the
periphery of a weak mid-level ridge extending from northern Mexico
westward. This pattern should keep Kay moving on this general track
for a couple of days. Once the cyclone weakens and becomes a shallow
system, it should turn to the west steered by the low-level easterly
flow. This forecast is very similar to the previous one and is
basically on top of the multimodel consensus TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 19.5N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 20.0N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 20.6N 114.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 21.2N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 21.7N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 23.2N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/0600Z 23.5N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila

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