ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122016
300 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016
The center continues to be on the edge or very near a large area of
developing convection. Dvorak T-number estimates remain below
tropical storm strength, but a recent ASCAT-B pass around 0500 UTC
showed a few wind vectors of 35 kt in the southeastern quadrant. On
this basis, the depression has been upgraded to tropical storm
status. Kay continues to be affected by northeasterly shear, but
conditions are still favorable for slight strengthening during the
next 24 hours before the cyclone encounters a more stable
environment. After that time, gradual weakening should begin.
The best estimate of the initial motion is 315/06. Kay is embedded
within light steering currents around a weak ridge over Mexico, and
this pattern is forecast to change little. Most of the track models
keep Kay moving northwestward with a gradual bend to the west as the
cyclones weakens. The exception is the GFS which brings a very weak
system close to Baja California. This GFS solution does not appear
to be realistic at this time. The NHC forecast follows the bulk of
the guidance, shifting a little bit to the left from the previous
NHC forecast and following the multimodel consensus TVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 18.4N 110.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 19.1N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 20.0N 111.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 20.6N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 21.0N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 21.7N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z 22.5N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Avila
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