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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
2100 UTC SUN AUG 07 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO SANTA
FE...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS...AND ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
NORTH OF SANTA FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO SANTA FE...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SANTA
FE TO CABO SAN LAZARO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 106.6W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 106.6W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 106.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.4N 108.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.4N 109.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.2N 110.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.2N 111.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.6N 112.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 106.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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