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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
0900 UTC SUN AUG 07 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES.  THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO SANTA FE...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO SANTA FE...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.3W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 104.3W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 103.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.0N 105.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  30SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.3N 107.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.3N 108.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 104.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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