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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
300 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016

Deep convection associated with Javier has dissipated overnight and
the cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.
It has been very difficult to locate the center overnight, but
satellite and surface observations suggest that it is located near
or over the southern Baja California peninsula.  Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates have decreased and a blend of the various T-
and CI-numbers yield an initial intensity of 40 kt.  An automated
Mexican weather observing site near Cabo Pulmo on the southeastern
portion of Baja California has reported tropical storm force wind
gusts during the past few hours.

The small tropical cyclone appears to have succumb to the
effects of land interaction, northeasterly shear, and dry mid-level
air sooner than anticipated.  As a result, the NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted lower than the previous advisory and now
calls for additional weakening as Javier interacts with land and
moves into a more stable environment.  Javier is forecast to weaken
to a tropical depression later today, and become a remnant low on
Wednesday, however this could occur much earlier if organized
deep convection does not redevelop soon.

The initial motion estimate is 315/6 kt.  Javier is forecast to
continue moving northwestward during the next day or so around the
southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the south-central
United States.  The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
and the NHC forecast is near the latest multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0900Z 23.3N 110.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/1800Z 24.3N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  10/0600Z 25.6N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  10/1800Z 26.6N 113.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/0600Z 27.2N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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