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TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 07 2016

The burst of deep convection from earlier has begun to diminish,
leaving Ivette's low-level center exposed.  A Dvorak satellite
classification of T2.5 is used to lower the initial intensity
estimate to 35 kt on this advisory. Ivette is living on borrowed
time, according to the global models.  Although another diurnal
burst of convection is possible again tonight, even greater
southwesterly shear, combined with an increasingly drier and
more stable air, should soon contribute to Ivette's demise. The
official NHC forecast shows the cyclone slowly weakening during the
next day or so and becoming a remnant low in 36 hours. Dissipation
is forecast in about 2 days.

Ivette continues on a west-northwestward track or 290/09.  This
general motion is forecast to continue for another 12 hours or so.
However, a westward and then west-southwestward change in the
cyclone's heading is likely after that time when Ivette becomes a
shallower cyclone.  The new NHC forecast track is about the same as
the previous one and is very near the multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 17.3N 139.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 17.9N 140.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 18.4N 141.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 18.3N 143.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/1800Z 18.1N 145.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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