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TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 07 2016

Convection has redeveloped on the northern side of Ivette, although
the center remains partially exposed.  An ASCAT-A pass at 6Z
revealed maximum winds of 35-40 kt, and since thunderstorm activity
has increased markedly since that time, the initial wind speed is
kept at 40 kt.  Ivette is forecast to gradually spin down over the
next few days due to cooling waters, strong shear and entrainment of
dry air aloft.  A strong surface high over the central Pacific
should cause an enhanced gradient on the northern side of Ivette,
similar to Howard's synoptic situation last week.  Thus, Ivette will
probably have an extended weakening phase, and the official forecast
reflects this situation, ending up a little higher than the previous
advisory at day 2 and 3.  The global models continue to show the
system opening up into a trough by day 4.

The storm remains on track and is moving 290/10 kt.  Ivette should
gradually turn westward and west-southwestward over the next few
days as it becomes a shallow remnant low.  No significant changes
were made to the previous forecast, and the new NHC track
prediction continues to be positioned only a small distance south
of the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 16.9N 137.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 17.4N 138.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 18.0N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 18.4N 141.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  09/0600Z 18.4N 143.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  10/0600Z 17.5N 148.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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