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TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016

Ivette is feeling the effects of 10-15 kt of southwesterly vertical
shear and dry air entrainment, as conventional and microwave
satellite imagery indicate that the low-level center is now
displaced to the southwest of the convection.  The initial
intensity remains 50 kt in agreement with various subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates.  However, this could be a
little generous.

The initial motion is 280/9, as the storm continues to be steered by
the subtropical ridge to its north.  Ivette should turn toward the
west-northwestward shortly, as it nears the western periphery of the
ridge.  However, in about three days, the tropical cyclone should
turn westward as the weakening system is steered by the low-level
easterly trade winds.  The new track forecast is little changed from
the previous forecast and lies near the TVCN consensus model.

Although Ivette is expected to remain over 26C-28C sea surface
temperatures during the forecast period, the combination of
increasing shear and abundant dry air seen in water vapor imagery
are expected to cause the storm to weaken.  The intensity forecast
no longer shows any intensification.  Instead, the initial
intensity is maintained through 24 hours in general agreement with
the intensity guidance, followed by a slow weakening trend.  The
dynamical models are in good agreement that Ivette will weaken to a
trough by 120 hours, so the forecast calls for the cyclone to
dissipate by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 15.8N 133.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 16.2N 135.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 16.9N 136.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 17.7N 138.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 18.3N 139.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 18.5N 143.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 18.0N 147.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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