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TROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016

Ivette continues to have a ragged appearance on satellite imagery,
and recent microwave data showed that all the deep convection is
located to the south and southeast of the center.  Still, Dvorak CI
numbers from TAFB and SAB, as well as the UW-CIMSS ADT, support
maintaining an intensity of 45 kt.  Vertical shear does not appear
very high (about 10 kt according to SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS),
but it is from a westerly direction, which is not great for
intensification.  Since sea surface temperatures remain warm, only
modest strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 hours.  After
that time, deep-layer westerly shear increases over 20 kt, and this
should cause Ivette to weaken quickly.  In fact, the NHC forecast
now calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low in about 4
days.  This forecast is very similar to the previous one, and it
lies close to the IVCN intensity consensus.

Ivette continues to move westward (275 degrees), but its speed has
decreased to 11 kt.  Subtropical high pressure located to the north
of the cyclone is causing the current westward motion, but Ivette
is approaching a break in the ridge located northeast of Hawaii.
Therefore, the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and
slow down some more very soon, with that heading continuing through
day 3.  Once Ivette becomes a remnant low, it should turn westward
in the low-level trade winds.  The track guidance remains in good
agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC track forecast is
very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 15.1N 130.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 15.4N 132.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 16.1N 134.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 16.8N 135.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 17.5N 137.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 18.6N 140.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 18.8N 143.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1200Z 18.5N 148.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

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