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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Satellite images indicate the area of low pressure well southwest
of mainland Mexico has become better organized.  ASCAT data
indicate the center is fairly well defined, with curved banding
features forming around the surface center.  Thus tropical cyclone
advisories are being initiated on this system. Dvorak estimates and
the ASCAT data support an initial wind speed of 30 kt.  Gradual
strengthening is forecast for the next few days while the cyclone
remains over warm water, with weak-to-moderate shear and high mid-
level humidity.  The official forecast is a bit higher than the
model consensus, since most of the guidance has had a low bias this
season.

ASCAT and microwave data give a relatively confident initial motion
of 290/15.  A strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is
expected to steer the cyclone relatively quickly to the west over
the next few days.  The ridge is forecast to weaken on days 4 and 5,
which should cause a decrease in forward speed while the system
approaches the central Pacific.  Track guidance is in remarkable
agreement for the first advisory, and the official forecast is near,
but slightly faster than, the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 13.3N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 13.9N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 14.5N 121.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 15.0N 124.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 16.1N 132.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 16.9N 136.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 18.0N 140.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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