ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 800 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 Howard's organized deep convection dissipated around 0600 UTC, and the convection is not likely to return due to unfavorable thermodynamic conditions. The initial intensity estimate is lowered to 35 kt, assuming some spin-down of the vortex since an overnight ASCAT pass. Howard should become a remnant low later today, and open up into a trough in about 4 days. The initial motion estimate is 295/12. Now a shallower cyclone, Howard should begin to turn toward the west or possibly west-southwest under the influence of a low-level subtropical ridge prior to dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 21.1N 133.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 21.6N 135.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1200Z 22.1N 138.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 22.3N 141.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 22.6N 144.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 22.6N 149.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z 22.0N 154.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain NNNN
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