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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016
800 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016

Howard's organized deep convection dissipated around 0600 UTC, and
the convection is not likely to return due to unfavorable
thermodynamic conditions.  The initial intensity estimate is lowered
to 35 kt, assuming some spin-down of the vortex since an overnight
ASCAT pass. Howard should become a remnant low later today, and open
up into a trough in about 4 days.

The initial motion estimate is 295/12.  Now a shallower cyclone,
Howard should begin to turn toward the west or possibly
west-southwest under the influence of a low-level subtropical ridge
prior to dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 21.1N 133.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 21.6N 135.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  04/1200Z 22.1N 138.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 22.3N 141.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 22.6N 144.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z 22.6N 149.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z 22.0N 154.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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