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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016

Deep convection has increased and become better organized since the
previous advisory with the development of a ragged CDO feature.
However, recent ASCAT wind data indicate that the low-level center
is displaced near the southern edge of the cloud shield due to some
modest southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity has been
increased to 50 kt based on ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B overpasses around
0600Z.

The initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt. Howard is forecast to
continue moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next
48 hours or so and gradually weaken. By 72 hours and beyond, Howard
is expected to become a vertically shallow remnant low pressure
system that will be steered westward by a expansive subtropical
ridge located to the north of the cyclone. The NHC model guidance
remains tightly packed and the new forecast track, which lies close
to multi-model consensus TVCN, is just an extension of the previous
advisory.

After the earlier brief convective hiatus while Howard was moving
over a cold water pool, the cyclone is now moving over warmer water,
which likely has aided in the recent redevelopment of significant
convection. Although some additional intensification is possible
today, this will be short-lived due to Howard moving over sub-25 deg
C sea-surface temperatures and into drier and more stable airmass in
12 hours or so. After that time, the combination of even cooler
water and increasing southwesterly wind shear should induce steady
weakening, with Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone by 48 hours.
While the remnant low is forecast to move back over SSTs near 26
deg C in 96-120 hours, strong southwesterly shear and a stable air
mass should prevent any redevelopment of persistent deep convection.
The new intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 18.3N 127.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 19.3N 129.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 20.5N 132.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 21.4N 135.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 22.1N 137.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  05/0600Z 22.9N 143.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0600Z 23.2N 149.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0600Z 23.2N 154.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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