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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016
800 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016

Visible imagery and a 01/2038 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass show that
Howard's center of circulation has become exposed to the west of the
cloud canopy.  Additionally, the entire western half of the cyclone
has become devoid of deep convective banding.  It appears that
modest westerly shear is impinging on the storm and undercutting the
diffluent flow aloft.  A blend of the Final-T numbers from
both TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 45 kt for this
advisory.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next
12 hours while Howard remains over SSTs greater than 26C. By the 24
hour period, the cyclone is expected to move over cooler sub-24 deg
C water. Cooler SSTs and increasing southwesterly shear should
induce steady weakening, resulting in Howard degenerating into a
post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours, and a remnant low by day 3.
After that time, the large-scale models show the remnant low
degenerating into a trough of low pressure.  The intensity forecast
is a little above the previous forecast, but is lower than the IVCN
intensity consensus.

Satellite position estimates suggest that Howard is moving
toward the west-northwest, or 295 degrees, at about 12 kt.  Howard
is expected to move in a general west-northwestward motion during
the next 72 hours along the southern periphery of a subtropical
ridge located to the north of the cyclone.  Through the remainder of
the period, the cyclone is forecast to become a shallow remnant low
and turn toward the west following the low-level easterly tradewind
flow.  The official NHC forecast is quite similar to the previous
one, and is hedged toward the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 17.7N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 18.7N 128.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 20.0N 130.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 21.1N 133.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 22.0N 136.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  05/0000Z 22.9N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z 23.3N 147.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z 23.2N 152.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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