ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016 The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much since the previous advisory. Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that most of the deep convection is confined to the southern portion of the circulation with some thin and fragmented bands to the north of the center. The Dvorak T-number from TAFB was lowered slightly from that of the previous classification. Given the lack of increased organization, the initial intensity is again held at 30 kt. Some strengthening seems likely during the next day or so while the depression remains over relatively warm water and in conducive atmospheric conditions. The strengthening trend should be relatively short lived though since the cyclone is forecast to move over cool waters and into a more stable environment in about 36 hours, which should induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is similar to the SHIPS guidance. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression is moving toward the west-northwest, or 295 degrees, at about 10 kt. A slightly faster west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as a mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone strengthens. A turn to the west is predicted by the end of the period when the shallow cyclone is steered by the low-level trade winds. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 15.8N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 16.5N 123.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 18.7N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 19.9N 131.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 21.9N 136.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0000Z 22.8N 142.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0000Z 23.2N 147.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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