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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016

The cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much since the
previous advisory.  Geostationary satellite and microwave images
indicate that most of the deep convection is confined to the
southern portion of the circulation with some thin and fragmented
bands to the north of the center.  The Dvorak T-number from TAFB was
lowered slightly from that of the previous classification. Given the
lack of increased organization, the initial intensity is again held
at 30 kt.

Some strengthening seems likely during the next day or so while the
depression remains over relatively warm water and in conducive
atmospheric conditions.  The strengthening trend should be
relatively short lived though since the cyclone is forecast to move
over cool waters and into a more stable environment in about 36
hours, which should induce weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and is similar to the SHIPS
guidance.

Satellite fixes suggest that the depression is moving toward the
west-northwest, or 295 degrees, at about 10 kt.  A slightly faster
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as a
mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone strengthens.  A turn
to the west is predicted by the end of the period when the shallow
cyclone is steered by the low-level trade winds.  The models are in
good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 15.8N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 16.5N 123.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 18.7N 128.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 19.9N 131.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 21.9N 136.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/0000Z 22.8N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0000Z 23.2N 147.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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