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HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Georgette has continued to strengthen today, with a cloudy eye now
seen in visible imagery surrounded by a CDO with cloud tops of
around -70C.  The initial intensity is set to 90 kt based on the
latest Dvorak estimates of T5.0 from TAFB and SAB.  Georgette still
has a chance to intensity further in the next 12 hours before SSTs
cool below 26C along the track.  After that time, slow weakening
should begin, followed by a faster rate of decay by 36 hours as
SSTs cool below 25C and the shear increases a bit.  Georgette is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 3-4 days.  The NHC
intensity forecast is above all of the guidance through 24 hours
and near or a little below the LGEM.

The initial motion estimate is 300/09.  The mid-level anticyclone
centered north of Georgette will gradually weaken during the next 72
hours, which will cause the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward
and slow down.  Late in the period, a shallow post-tropical
Georgette should accelerate back toward the west in the low-level
trade wind flow.  The new NHC track is again adjusted a little to
the right of the previous one and is not far from the new TVCN
multi-model consensus.

The wind radii have been adjusted based on a pair of ASCAT passes
around 1800 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 15.7N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 16.4N 126.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 17.2N 127.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 17.9N 128.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 18.7N 128.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 20.8N 131.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  29/1800Z 23.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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