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TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072016
800 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016
Frank is quickly weakening today, with a shrinking area of deep
convection near and northwest of the center. A blend of the
TAFB/SAB Dvorak T/CI numbers gives an initial wind speed of 55 kt
for this advisory. Steady weakening is expected due to the cyclone
moving over progressively colder waters and into a more stable
airmass. The official intensity forecast remains near the latest
model consensus, IVCN, and Frank should degenerate into a remnant
low by tomorrow afternoon.
Microwave data indicate the storm continues moving 295/10 kt. Frank
should turn westward and slow down as the cyclone becomes a weak and
shallow remnant low steered by the low-level ridge. Models have
shifted a little southward on this cycle, and the official forecast
follows that trend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 22.7N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 23.4N 122.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 24.2N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 24.8N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 25.0N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z 24.8N 127.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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